Most Effective Weapon Trump-Vance Administration Can Use In Cuba Does Not Have Bullets.  It Has Capital, Checkbooks, Owners, And Shareholders 

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Most Effective Weapon Trump-Vance Administration Can Use In Cuba Does Not Have Bullets.  It Has Capital, Checkbooks, Owners, And Shareholders 

President Trump’s “honor of taking Cuba in some form” 

Does President Trump Want Cuba “as is” Or After Improvements And Reimbursements? 

5,913 U.S. Certified Claimants Are Like Bondholders And Preferred Shareholders 

U.S. Certified Claimants Owed US$1.9 Billion.  Does That Make Them Debtor In Possession For Cuba’s Political Chapter 11? 

Cuba Has 10 Million Shareholders.  Do They Get A Vote? 

The most effective use of force by the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) to influence commercial, economic, financial, military, political, and societal change within the Republic of Cuba can be delivered from United States-based companies rather than from the United States Department of Defense (War). 

The goals of the Trump-Vance Administration for the Republic of Cuba are not dissimilar from the goals of the Trump-Vance Administration for the Islamic Republic of Iran. 

For Iran, the Trump-Vance Administration wants to correct what it believes were deficiencies in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated during the Obama-Biden Administration (2009-2017).  The JPCOA was executed by the government of Iran and the P5+1 (United Nations Security Council members- China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, plus Germany) and the twenty-seven-member country Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU).  The goal of the JPCOA was to limit the nuclear program of the Iran in exchange for relief from sanctions.  The White House believes the government of Iran gained too much, obtained too much, and retained too much while giving too little.   

For the Republic of Cuba, the Trump-Vance Administration wants to correct mistakes by its predecessors:   

First, deficiencies in the 2014-2017 decisions by the Obama-Biden Administration to re-engage with the Republic of Cuba.   

The perspective of The White House is there were insufficient quid pro quos for what was provided by the government of the United States to what was received by the government of the Republic of Cuba.   

United States-based companies were not authorized by the government of the Republic of Cuba to re-engage in a meaningful way.  Other than one hotel management contract (which was to have included three properties), three cruise lines delivering passengers for day-trips, six airlines expanding their operational footprint and adding destinations, increased number of visitors, and expanded access to Wi-Fi and applications, there remained constraints. 

Proposals by United States-based companies for assembly (including tractors), management (additional hotel management contracts), manufacturing, retail, service (including accounting firms and law firms), wholesale, and vehicle ferries, along with authorization to hire Republic of Cuba nationals directly and pay them directly, were denied.   

From the perspective of The White House, an egregious dereliction was for the United States Department of State to not condition re-engagement with an agreement to compensate the 5,913 claimants for the US$1.9 billion certified by the United States Foreign Claims Settlement Commission (USFCSC) within the United States Department of Justice (DOJ).  During the Obama-Biden Administration and during the Trump-Pence Administration (2017-2021) there were settlement proposals presented to the government of the Republic of Cuba both on behalf of and directly by certified claimants.  Those settlement proposals were rebuffed by the government of the Republic of Cuba. 

Link To USFCSC Cuba Program: https://www.justice.gov/fcsc/claims-against-cuba 

Toronto, Canada-based Sherritt International Corporation whose executives have been subject to since 1996 to Libertad Act Title IV provisions (no travel visas), has an opportunity to create a foundation for a settlement with certified claimants as it has products of value to United States-based companies.  Sherritt International Corporation has nickel and cobalt operations in the Republic of Cuba on property owned by Moa Bay Mining Company and Cuban American Nickel Company. 

Second, deficiencies by the Biden-Harris Administration (2021-2025) not necessarily in what decisions were implemented, for example expanding engagement with the re-emerging private sector in the Republic of Cuba including authorizing the first direct investment in and direct financing to a privately-owned company owned by a Republic of Cuba national located in the Republic of Cuba.  The problem was the refusal of the Diaz-Canel-Valdes Mesa Administration (2019- ) in Havana to issue regulations for the delivery of direct investment and direct financing.  Due to decisions in 2026 by The White House, the government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela ceased commercial, economic, and financial support to the government of the Republic of Cuba.  Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017-2021 and 2025-2029), believes this provides leverage to coerce, convince, and force the government of the Republic of Cuba to implement what was refused during the Biden-Harris Administration, along with additional changes, specifically to banking. 

Links To Related Analyses 

The Trump-Vance Administration is increasingly concerned about governments including Brazil, Canada, China, Mexico, Russia, and Spain, along with the collective twenty-seven-member country Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU), providing lifelines to the government of the Republic of Cuba that result, as those efforts have previously, in not furthering expansion of liberties (commercial, economic, financial, political, societal), but in continuing constriction and delay and limitation of liberties.  The White House believes third-party support will provide the government of the Republic of Cuba with resources to then avoid implementing structural changes required for its population of approximately ten million to have an opportunity to thrive rather than survive. 

“Cuba opened its economy.  It was a decision made by the Cuban government a few weeks ago.  They had opened up certain sectors, such as tourism, but now they have decided to further open up the economy.  This means that there may be investments in Cuba from private companies or through cooperation with joint ventures.”  Claudia Sheinbaum, President of Mexico 

“We certainly discussed economic issues at all meetings in Havana, it was among the main topics.  The issue of ensuring the island's energy security is a priority.  But it's too early to say what the next steps will be.  It is well known that we generally do not limit ourselves to the supply of that batch of oil that has already arrived on the island on the tanker Anatoly Kolodkin… practical cooperation - providing the island with hydrocarbons and stabilizing its energy system - is of particular importance…. This is significant in terms of the intensity of our contacts.  I want to note the extremely businesslike nature of our conversations.  We don't focus on protocol, on decorative aspects in our relations, but purely on the specifics of the tasks that we face.  This is what our leaders are aiming at, and the Cuban president was as specific as possible in today's conversation… [I]s obvious to many in the international community, and not only Russia is concerned about this issue.  I think that those who understand that international law and the sovereign equality of states is not a slogan or an empty phrase should perceive the current situation as a task that needs to be solved in practical terms.  That is, to act and help Cuba by standing guard over these principles.”  Sergey Ryabkov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation 

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