Will This Moment Force Havana To Change And Force Washington To Intervene?
/Will This Moment Force Havana To Change And Force Washington To Intervene?
564 days since 20 January 2025 when Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017-2021 and 2025-2029) returned to his chair behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office at The White House.
216 days since 3 January 2026 when the armed forces of the United States abducted and then extracted Nicolas Maduro, President of Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (2013-2026), from the city of Caracas.
The resulting suspension of oil exports from Venezuela to the Republic of Cuba along with related and unrelated financial assistance and benefits created a recurring tsunami of challenges for the Diaz-Canel-Valdes Mesa Administration (2019- ).
If the impact and speed from the commercial, economic, financial, military, political, and societal Domino Effect is measured in pain, then the impact upon the approximately 9.5 million residents of the 800-mile-long archipelago located ninety-three miles south of Key West, Florida, is profound and forever transformative.
The Special Period (1991-1995) for the Republic of Cuba coinciding with the end of the U.S.S.R. in 1991 is remembered today in the Republic of Cuba as was the 20th Century’s Roaring Twenties for the United States. As awful as 1991-1995 were in the Republic of Cuba, those five years are preferred to the first eight months of 2026. For citizens of the Republic of Cuba, even the Great Depression (1929 to 1939) in the United States looks good compared to 2026. In 1929, there were soup kitchens. The difference is that soup kitchens had soup (and bread).
The Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2019) has capitalized upon the cascade of pain by instructing the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the United States Department of the Treasury, Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the United States Department of Commerce, United States Department of Justice, and Office of the Legal Adviser (OLA) of the United States Department of State to develop and implement measures and sanctions.
The result is the most cost-effectively implemented series of coercive sanctions imposed on any country which have quickly resulted in changes by the target government that the target government does not want to implement.
Approximately ten thousand words uploaded to three United States government Internet sites. No court appearances. No lawsuits. No legislation. For the OFAC, just sit back and enjoy the show.
The measures and sanctions planted in Washington DC have flourished far beyond the internationally-recognized borders of the United States. A textbook example of extraterritoriality where thus far neither the targets nor their respective governments do anything but comply.
Non-United States-based companies with connectivity to the Republic of Cuba have abandoned, ceased, redesigned, and suspended exporting, financial services, importing, joint ventures, travel services, and transportation services.
An Australia-based company and a Canada-based company are engaging with the OFAC, BIS, and United States Department of State to determine how they might restructure the operations in the Republic of Cuba to maintain their presence- and value to their respective shareholders. Both companies may end up with United States-based owners or shareholders.
From January 2026, the perplexing question for some and the vexing question for others is what will trigger the moment requiring the government of the Republic of Cuba to materially change and what is the moment requiring the government of the United States to intervene?
Political decisions are increasingly implemented in response to optics- a photograph, video transmitted informally, officially, or in error. Becoming “viral” online.
For the Republic of Cuba, the moment will arrive in the form of a photograph published (uploaded) by an individual or by Agencia EFE, Agence France-Presse, Associated Press, or Reuters.
It will be of an old woman lying dead on a pile of garbage on a street in the city of Havana, Republic of Cuba.
This will be the trigger.
Unknown is how the response will unfold from the Palacio de la Revolución from The White House. Known is there will be a response.
These images were created using an Artificial Intelligence (AI) program.
Hopefully, this is the way it will remain- a possibility rather than a reality.
