Cuba: Just Because There Is No Talking Does Not Mean There Is No Communicating. That Something Is Not Happening, Someone Is Not Listening, And Someone Is Not Responding
/Diaz-Canel Versus Trump And Trump Versus Diaz-Canel
Just Because There Is No Talking Does Not Mean There Is No Communicating. That Something Is Not Happening, Someone Is Not Listening, And Someone Is Not Responding
Goal Is For Cuba To Wean Off The Ventilator
It’s The Private Sector, Stupid
On 3 January 2026, the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) confirmed the capture and departure of Nicolas Maduro, President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (2013-2025), and Mrs. Maduro from the capital city of Caracas.
That moment triggered for some in the government of the Republic of Cuba and for some of the approximately ten million citizens of the Republic of Cuba an unanticipated and unwelcomed opportunity to address the increasingly dire instability and unsustainability throughout the political model adopted on 1 January 1959. For others in the Republic of Cuba, that moment on 3 January 2026 was precisely the prescription long sought from the compounding pharmacy.
The survival of that adopted political model on 1 January 1959 has always necessitated from third parties commercial, economic, and financial defibrillation, dialysis, intervention, resuscitation, and ventilation. It has never supported itself irrespective of policies, regulations, and statutes implemented by the United States government.
During the last seven months, the Diaz-Canel-Valdes Mesa Administration (2019- ) and the government of the Republic of Cuba have approved more than 176 commercial, economic, financial, political, and societal changes to policies, regulations, and statutes.
Fifteen years earlier, in 2011, the government of the Republic of Cuba approved 311 commercial, economic, financial, political, and societal changes to policies, regulations, and statutes.
Thus far in 2026, there have been a higher number of announcements and approvals than implementation (regulations) of those announcements and regulations.
“The discussions between the Cuban and US governments are showing no progress… despite all that… [we] will remain open to dialogue.” Bruno Rodriguez, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Cuba (2009- )
Minister Rodriguez is wrong. Discussions and dialogue and actions thus far have been successful in fostering change- that which the government of the Republic of Cuba maintains is taken independently of external influences and that which the government of the United States maintains is taken precisely due to external influences.
The communication process may not reflect diplomatic norms, but there is no debating that however the communication process is defined and described, there are results.
There may be inconsistent face-to-face dialogue. And when there is face-to-face dialogue, the result may not be what Havana wants- but is acceptable to Washington DC. There are also inconsistent exchanges of diplomatic notes.
The connectivity between the Palacio de la Revolución and The White House exists under non-traditional norms. There exists Pavlovian Diagloue, Performative Dialogue, Responsive Dialogue, and Sign Language Dialogue. There is Non-Communicative Dialogue.
From the perspective of the Trump-Vance Administration, its implemented strategies targeting the Republic of Cuba are successful by any measure. Those strategies are implemented by communicating. And to date quite cost-effectively.
This is achieved without the armed forces of the United States having deployed to the Republic of Cuba one boot on the ground or having fired one bullet.
The strategies consist of writing and then publishing those writings on the Internet portals of the United States Department of State, Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the United States Department of the Treasury, and Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the United States Department of Commerce.
Thus far, less than 10,000 words have resulted in an impressive quality and quantity of non-United States-based companies ending, lessening, or suspending their presence in the Republic of Cuba. Governments, including those with previous connectivity with the government of the Republic of Cuba, have remained reticent to align their rhetoric with consequential support.
The degradation of the presence in the Republic of Cuba of non-Republic of Cuba-based companies is likened to a lava flow- it may be slow, but unstoppable until it decides to stop. The lava flow can, sometimes, be redirected- preferably towards where it will do less damage. The government of the Republic of Cuba can both redirect and stop the lava flow if it accepts the terms: changes and compromises.
Important for the government of the Republic of Cuba to appreciate that most of what the Trump-Vance Administration wants is aligned with what governments want who have provided support to the Republic of Cuba. The alignment is defined by jettisoning and rejecting and replacing what does not work with what can work.
“There is an attempt to force upon us an economic dependency on the United States, undermining the involvement of our partners and companies which have actively contributed to the island's economic and social development for decades, some for over 30 or even 49 years.” Oscar Perez-Oliva Fraga, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment of the Republic of Cuba (2025- )
Deputy Prime Minister Fraga is partially correct. The primary goal of the Trump-Vance Administration is shared by most governments (particularly those who are owed money and whose companies are owed money). It is shared by the United States business community (particularly those who are owed money (5,913 certified claimants), are engaged in the Republic of Cuba, would like to re-engage with the Republic of Cuba, or anticipate engagement in the Republic of Cuba).
There must be a redesign of the systematic infrastructure throughout the 800-mile-long archipelago. The goal is to do better and to give more.
The government of the Republic of Cuba must seek to match-up desires during the second half of the 20th century with realities available thus far in the 21st century.
The Trump-Vance Administration has used Microsoft Word and the Internet as deployment platforms to influence and impact the government of the Republic of Cuba.
These are the tools it uses to communicate. The government of the Republic of Cuba is communicating, responding, through its announcements of changes.
“The U.S. government has obstructed Cuba’s ability to receive fuel supplies for the past seven months… violation of international law… collective punishment… crime against humanity.” Bruno Rodriguez, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Cuba (2009- )
“The U.S. measures its success against Cuba by the number of blackout hours endured by the citizens, the families lacking cooking gas, the spoilage of food due to lack of refrigeration, postponed or unperformed surgeries, the decline in infant mortality rates, and the resulting newborn deaths.” Carlos Fernández de Cossío, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Republic of Cuba (2022- )
The statements by Minister Rodriguez and Deputy Minister Fernandez de Cossio have resonance with many and receive empathy and sympathy too.
However, and this is cold, but those who matter in Washington DC and in the State of Florida do not see those current realities as dissuasive from maintaining a strategy they believe is effective and believe is working and believe will ultimately prevail. They may be wrong. But they will stick with it as it is highly cost-effective.
If the strategy was not effective and not working, then, they ask, why are the Diaz-Canel-Valdes Mesa Administration and the Communist Party of the Republic of Cuba (Partido Comunista de Cuba, PCC) continuing to adopt changes to the commercial, economic, financial, political, and societal infrastructure?
For The White House, a prosperous country is a better customer than a poor country. If a Communist-governed country can manage its economy, as does the People’ Republic of China and Socialist Republic of Vietnam, then while not preferable, it is acceptable.
If the Republic of Cuba had a Communist Party that could successfully manage its economy, then the bilateral dynamic would have greater elasticity. Competent Communist- Si. Incompetent Communist- No.
A Republic of Cuba that is prosperous and well-managed means more export opportunities, more import opportunities, more investment opportunities, and more service opportunities for United States-based companies. That is what is meant by the following statement:
“… And speaking of Cuba, after many, many decades, it's coming our way.” Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017-2021 and 2025-2029)
Representatives of United States-based companies who interacted with Fidel Castro, President of the Republic of Cuba (1976-2008), and, specifically, with those within his administration, believe he and his team would never have permitted in 2025 and 2026 what has been permitted by the Diaz-Canel-Valdes Mesa Administration. Not because President Castro would have surrendered. Because he would have made a deal. He would have seen change as a challenge rather than capitulation.
In September 2002, President Castro personally hosted 923 representatives of United States-based companies during the U.S. Food & Agribusiness Exhibition held at the Palacio de Convenciones de la Habana. For perspective, the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion of the Republic of Cuba included approximately 1,511 participants.
President Castro knew the Bush-Cheney Administration (2001-2009) would exploit to the negative the gathering- and it did.
There were also constituencies within the government of the Republic of Cuba who were ferocious in their opposition to the gathering. For most, the rationale was the negative impact upon their personal political fiefdoms.
President Castro’s position and critically the position of his senior team was “fine, the Americans believe this event will benefit them. We will make it benefit us.” He looked at challenges as opportunities and opportunities as challenges. That is not happening in 2026.
https://humanfocus.co.uk/blog/the-four-types-of-communication-and-when-to-use-them/