Who Might President Trump Meet With At The United Nations In September 2019?
Fourteen Meetings Which Would Be Optimal Optically
A New Form Of “Shock-And-Awe”
Trump Tower To Replace Lotte
I will Extend My Hand. Will You Extend Your Hand?
The “21” Club For A Hamburger With Chairman Kim?
The annual United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City will commence on 17 September 2019, with The Honorable Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, expected to deliver his remarks on 24 September 2019.
What is known- President Trump gravitates towards rupturing tradition and re-engineering decisions of Oval Office predecessors. Less certain is the impact by those surrounding him- and those to whom he reaches outward and those who reach him through television.
President Trump will use the speech at the UNGA to discuss reductions in United States military deployments (Afghanistan, Syria), advertise new/revised bilateral and multilateral trade agreements/efforts (South Korea, Japan, USMCA, China, EU, United Kingdom); express concern about a renewal of a global arms race, but reconfirm a commitment by the United States to counter any threat; lament problems with and offer solutions for the United Nations, WTO, EU, and NATO (accepting credit for increasing burden-sharing among members); list countries where the UN should focus attention; mention the efforts of this daughter relating to women’s issues; laud United States military prowess and equipment exports; and describe how and recommend that other countries follow the commercial, economic and political lead of the United States so that their countries may be as muscular and respected as the United States has become since his inauguration on 20 January 2017- he will name the successes and name the failures, which will include both friend and foe.
The President’s September 2019 speech to the UNGA will be the set-up for his September 2020 speech to the UNGA- which will be less than six weeks prior to the 3 November 2020 election.
The September 2020 speech will be his list of accomplishments delivered on a global stage unavailable to his opponent. He will take personal credit for the positives and reject personal responsibility for the failures. He will project that the United States is again respected; while some in the audience will receive that message as the United States has since 20 January 2017 become more bullying, more threatening, more menacing, and more feared rather than respected. The event will assuredly not be boring.
Prior to arriving in New York City in September 2019, the President will steadily increase meetings at The White House with heads of state and heads of government.
The President will have been energized from attending the 45th G7 Summit held in Biarritz, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France, from 24 August 2019 to 26 August 2019.
There are reports that the United States is evaluating a proposal to expand the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States, and leadership of the EU). There are officials who believe the G7 has become an anachronism by not including China and India, the second-largest GDP (China) and fifth-largest GDP (India) and the largest (China) and second largest (India) by population. It should be the G9. And, the argument by the Trump Administration that China should no longer be considered a developing country by the WTO is strengthened by including China within an expanded G7. One perspective for China in the G9: more difficult for China to misbehave on the global stage.
UNGA In September 2019
The President wants to be perceived as the global leader who can be a catalyst to bring together parties with disagreements- regardless of whether the United States has a direct or indirect interest in an issue: North Korea (South Korea and Japan), Syria (Iran, Russia and Turkey), Ukraine (Russia), Afghanistan (Pakistan), Kashmir (India, Pakistan), Venezuela (Brazil, China, Colombia, Cuba, Russia, Turkey) among others.
President Trump has demonstrated an insatiable energy to engage with leadership of other countries.
This September, his schedule and time spent in New York City may be one of the most robust of any occupant of the Oval Office.
He may use his three-story penthouse in Trump Tower as he has used his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida: For high-profile intimate meetings and meals. Trump Tower is preferred to a suite or meeting room at the [South Korea-owned] Lotte New York Palace Hotel located less than five blocks from Trump Tower.
Is there a better optic for the President than welcoming world leaders to the lobby of Trump Tower- from where he announced his campaign in 2015? He would be in his comfort zone- and that’s important.
The President accepts criticism that meetings may be photo opportunities, but he believes that once a photograph is taken, it’s permanent and provides a better foundation from which to move forward than lack of that moment.
This White House staff may object, members of his Cabinet may demure, careerists at departments and agencies may urge caution, members of the United States Congress may deride, allies across the borders and across the seas and oceans may feel exasperated… yet all will energize him.
The President continues to believe that there are elements within the permanent-class of the United States government who work energetically to undermine his policies; and he believes that other heads of state and heads of government with whom he believes to have personal relationships, or could have, are also undermined by the permanent-class within their respective governments which is a reason commercial, economic and political agreements have been delayed. Those governments include China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, Turkey, and Venezuela among others.
From the perspective of President Trump, a strong leader has no fear in meeting with those with whom there are disagreements; a weak leader recoils from a challenge. Would President Trump chase-down at the United Nations a head of government or head of state for a conversation? He might well. The President is a disciple of the school of dexterity.
President Trump will also continue to remind heads of state and heads of government that predictive modeling analysis was wrong in 2016… and could be wrong again in 2020. And, whomever takes of oath of office on 20 January 2021 will likely have a United States Senate controlled by the Republican Party and a United States House of Representatives controlled by the Democratic Party and an national electorate nearly evening divided. So, a country embracing a “wait-him-out” strategy might be catastrophically wrong; and imagine his mood to be accommodative during his second, and final term in office?
The UNGA will be approximately thirteen (13) months- 407 days until the 2020 Presidential Election, so the Trump Administration will want to demonstrate a global mastery of events- and try to craft solutions to be announced. The President will continue to, when necessary, separate his relationship with a head of government or head of state with that of actions by the United States government. President Trump’s schedule may include, among others, individual high-profile meetings with:
H.E. Miguel Diaz-Canel, President of the Republic of Cuba; H.E. Hassan Rouhani, President of Iran; H.E. Kim Jong-Un, Chairman of the Presidium, North Korea; H.E. Bashar al-Assad, President of Syria; H.E. Vladimir Putin, President of Russia; H.E. Xi Jinping, President of China; H.E. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey; H.E. Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine; H.E. Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela; Mr. Juan Guaido, Interim President of Venezuela
Venezuela- A meeting with President Maduro and self-declared Interim President Guaido to resolve the commercial, economic and political issues impacting Venezuela. An expanded gathering might include H.E. Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil, H.E. Ivan Duque, President of Colombia, President Putin, President Diaz-Canel, and President Xi.
Cuba- A meeting with President Diaz-Canel to discuss bilateral relations and commercial, economic and political issues impacting Cuba and Venezuela.
Syria- A meeting with President al-Assad, President Putin, President Rouhani, and President Erdogan to resolve the commercial, economic and political issues impacting Syria.
Iran- Despite statements to the contrary, efforts are continuing for a meeting with President Trump and President Rouhani.
Kashmir- A meeting with H.E. Imran Khan, Prime Minister of Pakistan, and H.E. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India.
Afghanistan- A meeting with H.E. Imran Khan, Prime Minister of Pakistan, and H.E. Ashraf Ghani, President of Afghanistan. The President would enthusiastically support using his speech at the UNGA to announce the signing of a formal withdrawal of most United States military forces from Afghanistan.
Russia- A meeting with President Putin to discuss renewal of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
Reunification Of Ireland- A meeting with The Honorable Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and The Honorable Leo Varadkar, Taoiseach of Ireland to discuss the reunification Ireland with UK-controlled Northern Ireland.
United Kingdom/United States Trade Agreement- Prime Minister Boris Johnson has an interest in a United States-United Kingdom bilateral trade agreement ready to be implemented at 12:01 am on 31 October 2019. President Trump would seek to support Prime Minister Johnson. At minimum, the United States and the United Kingdom would adopt a medium-term bilateral trade agreement that mimics existing EU-based terms.
USMCA- A meeting with H.E. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, President of Mexico, and The Honorable Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, to reiterate their support for enacting the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
China- A meeting with President Xi to discuss the bilateral trade agreement and issues relating to the WTO. A goal of President Trump is for the United States to be perceived as seeking a resolution rather than as an obstacle to a resolution. President Trump will continue to separate his relationship with President Xi from the United States relationship with China.
Ukraine- A meeting with President Zelensky and President Putin to seek a resolution to some Russia-Ukraine bilateral issues- prisoner exchanges, return of vessels, border integrity.
Turkey- A meeting with President Erdogan to discuss military issues, regional issues, and bilateral issues including NATO, Syria and Venezuela. President Trump wants to determine a means to retain the financial and employment benefits from the export of the F-35 aircraft to Turkey and opportunities for the export of the Patriot missile system.
North Korea- The United States continues to identify means of transporting Chairman Kim from North Korea to the United States to attend the UNGA. Two options considered include the use of a United States government aircraft C-32 (military version of the commercial version of the Boeing 757) with seating for fifty-five passengers or an aircraft chartered by the United States government- perhaps an Air China Boeing 747-400 combo aircraft or Singapore Airlines Airbus A350-900 aircraft. The C-32 would require a refueling stop as its range is approximately 5,500 nautical miles and the distance from Pyongyang to John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) is 6,002 nautical miles. The Boeing 747-400 and Airbus A350-900 can travel nonstop from Pyongyang to JFK (or Joint Base Andrews in Maryland near Washington DC where the Boeing VC-25 is stored- when the President is aboard, the Boeing 747-200 aircraft has the call-sign Air Force One). President Trump could invite Chairman Kim to Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue and to have a (well-done) hamburger at The “21” Club Restaurant.
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